Disclosures and methodology

Who produces this research

Macro Mornings Research is an independent macro research practice. It is not affiliated with, owned by or funded by any bank, asset manager, broker or fund provider. It is published by Macro Mornings, established in Italy (the "Producer").

The sole author responsible for producing the research is Alessandro, Founder and Head of Research, acting for and on behalf of the Producer. No other person is involved in its production. Where a contributor takes part in a particular edition, that person's name and job title appear in that edition.

Contact: alessandro@macromornings.net

What this research is for

Macro Mornings Research produces educational and analytical work on the macroeconomic cycle. Its purpose is to explain how the cycle is being read, not to direct anyone's investments.

The Dashboard exists to make that reading legible and testable over time. It is a teaching device and a record of reasoning, published forward so that a view can be followed, questioned and judged as it ages. It is not a portfolio, and it is not a service for managing anyone's money.

What this material is, and what it is not

Nothing in the research is a personal recommendation or investment advice within the meaning of Article 4(1)(4) of Directive 2014/65/EU (MiFID II) or Article 1(5-septies) of Italian Legislative Decree 58/1998 (TUF). The research is distributed on a uniform basis to every subscriber of the relevant tier. It is not based on, and does not take into account, the objectives, financial situation, knowledge, experience, risk tolerance, tax position or particular needs of any recipient, and no suitability or appropriateness assessment is performed. Recipients must reach their own view and, where appropriate, take advice from an authorised adviser before acting.

The Producer treats itself as an "expert" as defined in Article 1(a) of Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958 and applies the additional requirements of Articles 4 and 6 accordingly.

Nothing here is an offer, solicitation or invitation to buy or sell any financial instrument, or a guarantee of any outcome.

Who may receive this research

The research is produced in Italy and is intended for recipients in jurisdictions where its distribution is permitted. It is not directed at, and must not be relied upon by, any person in a jurisdiction where its publication, distribution or availability would be contrary to local law or regulation, or would subject the Producer to any registration, licensing or authorisation requirement in that jurisdiction.

Recipients are responsible for informing themselves of, and observing, any restriction that applies to them. Access from a particular country does not imply that the research may lawfully be distributed there.

Publication and timing

Every edition and every weekly update of the Dashboard carries its publication date and time, in Central European Time. Market prices refer to the most recent close before publication unless stated otherwise at the point of use, and where an exhibit carries its own date, that date governs the data in that exhibit.

The Dashboard is published forward-looking. Each weekly update is dated when it is published and is never restated afterwards, and it is delivered to every subscriber as it is released, so that subscribers hold the complete sequence of positions from the date they join onwards. Where a position differs from the position last published on the same asset class or instrument, the change is marked in that week's update.

Facts, opinions and projections

Statements of fact are drawn from the sources credited at the point of use. Everything else, including interpretations, estimates, expectations, scenarios, indicative levels and any characterisation of an asset class as attractive or unattractive, is the author's opinion as at the date of publication.

Forward-looking statements are identified by wording such as "we expect", "the caution case", "worth roughly", "toward" or "implies", or by explicit labelling. They are projections, not forecasts of certainty. Actual outcomes will differ, potentially by a wide margin. No representation is made that any projection will be realised.

Sources

The research draws on data and charts published by central banks and public statistical agencies, market data vendors, investment banks and independent research providers. Every material source is credited beneath the exhibit or passage in which it appears.

The Producer considers the sources it uses reliable but does not independently verify the data they publish and accepts no responsibility for its accuracy or completeness. Where a source's reliability cannot be established, or a figure is preliminary or based on a limited sample, this is stated at the point of use. Figures appear as originally published and are not restated for later revisions.

Certain exhibits reproduce charts published by third parties, credited beneath the exhibit in which they appear. All rights in that material remain with its owners, and its inclusion implies no endorsement of this research or of the views expressed.

Methodology

The Dashboard is built from a single coverage universe and published in two views: the weights as they stand in the current week, and the index that records how those weights have compounded since inception.

Coverage universe

The 13 asset classes and indicators the research tracks: VIX; the US Dollar Index; short and intermediate Treasuries; long Treasuries; TIPS; gold; crude oil (WTI); broad commodities; developed market equities; emerging market equities; the S&P 500; the NASDAQ; and REITs. All series are measured at weekly close.

Of these, 10 are allocatable positions. VIX, the US Dollar Index and crude oil are tracked as inputs to the reading and never carry a weight: they are read, not held.

Published weights

The 10 allocatable positions expressed as percentage weights, set by the author on a discretionary basis. Long only and always fully invested: weights sum to 100% with no cash sleeve, no shorting, no derivatives and no leverage. Weights are set in whole percentage points, with a minimum of 0% and no cap on a single position.

Weights are reviewed and, where appropriate, revised weekly, and the change from the previous week is shown alongside each position, expressed in percentage points. Asset classes carrying a zero weight remain listed, so that the full set of allocatable positions stays visible and an absence of exposure is as legible as a holding. Weights are illustrative, for reference only. No allowance is made for transaction costs, spreads, taxes or slippage.

Macro Mornings Index

The performance series of the published weights. It tracks the 10 allocatable positions at the weights published each week, normalised to 100 at inception on 1 October 2025. Weights are neither fixed nor equal: they are set at the author's discretion and revised weekly, so the index reflects the sequence of positions actually published rather than a static rule. It is a total return series: dividends are reinvested. It reflects no transaction costs, fees, taxes, spreads or market impact, uses no leverage and takes no short positions.

The same series is shown over two windows: since inception on 1 October 2025, and year to date, rebased to 100 at the start of each calendar year. The two differ only in the starting point, not in the underlying positions.

What the Dashboard is not

It is a research output, not a portfolio: no capital is allocated to it, no orders are placed against it, and it exists to illustrate the reasoning behind the house view rather than to be implemented.

Proprietary models

The frameworks used are proprietary, and the summary set out above is the level of detail the Producer publishes. Where a third-party model or published methodology is relied upon, it is identified at the point of use.

Changes to methodology

Any change to the universe, weighting approach, rebalancing cadence, constraints or data sources is disclosed in the edition in which it first takes effect, with its date and rationale.

What a position means, and over what horizon

A published weight expresses the author's view of the relative attractiveness of that exposure at the date of publication. An increase means a strengthening of that view, a decrease a weakening, a zero weight no exposure. Weights are not instructions to trade, are not calibrated to any recipient's circumstances, and carry no price target.

Unless stated otherwise, views are expressed over a 6 to 18 month horizon. Weekly rebalancing reflects incremental revision within that horizon, not a short-term trading stance.

Risk

All investment involves risk, including loss of the entire amount invested. Values can fall as well as rise. Exposures discussed may carry concentration, currency, interest-rate, inflation, liquidity, counterparty, commodity and geopolitical risk. Instruments denominated in a currency other than the recipient's base currency carry exchange-rate risk.

Update frequency

The Institutional Macro Report is published monthly. The Dashboard is reviewed and, where appropriate, revised weekly. Views may be updated between scheduled publications where circumstances warrant, but the Producer is under no obligation to do so and gives no undertaking to notify recipients of a change of opinion.

Interests and conflicts of interest

The Producer has no agreement with, receives no compensation from, and provides no services to any issuer, fund provider, index provider or asset manager whose instruments are referenced in the research. It is not a market maker or liquidity provider in any instrument referenced and has not acted as manager of any offering of financial instruments.

The author's remuneration derives solely from subscription revenue and from his stated professional activities. It is not linked to the direction of any view expressed, to transactions in any instrument referenced, or to trading fees of any kind.

The research is produced independently of the author's own financial position, and no view is formed or changed because of it. Where a personal interest could reasonably affect a view expressed, it is disclosed in the edition where that view appears.

Hypothetical results

Hypothetical results have inherent limitations. They reflect no transaction costs, spreads, taxes, financing, liquidity constraints or market impact, all of which would reduce returns, and they do not reflect the financial risk or the operational and emotional demands of trading real capital. Past performance, actual or hypothetical, is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Licensing

All research, data, exhibits and Dashboard content are the property of the Producer and are protected by copyright. Access is granted to the subscriber named on the account, is personal and non-transferable, and login credentials may not be shared.

Institutional

Licensed to the named subscribing organisation for internal use only. It may not be redistributed, reproduced, forwarded, quoted or shared outside that organisation, in whole or in part, without prior written consent.

Pro and Free

Licensed to the individual subscriber for personal use only. It may not be redistributed, republished, forwarded, posted publicly or shared with any other person, whether or not for payment. Brief quotation for commentary, review or teaching is permitted provided the extract is clearly attributed to Macro Mornings and, where the medium allows, links to the source.

All tiers

No part of the research may be used to train, fine-tune, evaluate or otherwise develop any machine learning or automated system, and no automated extraction, scraping or systematic downloading is permitted, whether or not the resulting output is published.

Requests to reproduce or redistribute beyond the above: alessandro@macromornings.net

Liability and governing law

The Producer accepts no liability for loss or damage arising from reliance on this research, save that nothing here excludes or limits liability for fraud, fraudulent misrepresentation, or any liability that cannot be excluded under applicable law.

Governing law: Italy. Contact: alessandro@macromornings.net